Detroit hands ball to Porcello in finale at Toronto
Baseball Betting Lines
08/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays close out a four- game weekend set at Rogers Centre this afternoon.
Detroit will give the ball to Rick Porcello, and the second-year hurler is just 6-11 this season with a 5.43 ERA. On Tuesday, Porcello defeated Kansas City in impressive fashion, tossing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. He began his career as a sinkerball pitcher, but has developed more of a repertoire in recent weeks.
The Detroit righty is 1-2 in his short career against Toronto with a 4.76 ERA.
Lefty Marc Rzepczynski is in line to get the start today for the Blue Jays, and he hopes to bounce back from a lackluster showing against the Yankees on Tuesday. The lefty lasted only three innings in that game and was touched for six earned runs on eight hits. Rzepczynski is 1-2 this season with a 6.31 ERA, and he is set to face Detroit for the first time.
Brandon Morrow had another solid outing yesterday for Toronto, allowing just one run in six innings, as the Blue Jays held on to beat the Tigers, 5-4, in the third portion of this set.
Morrow (10-6) gave up five hits, striking out nine and walking one for the Blue Jays, who have won four of six, including two of three in this series. Morrow is now 3-0 in the month of August with 49 strikeouts in 30 1/3 frames over five starts.
"I've been able to wriggle out of some jams recently when I get guys on," Morrow said. "I bear down and make some good pitches, and I've been able to get out of those last five starts and keep my pitch counts down."
Jose Bautista didn't add to his league-leading homer total, but ended 2-for-3 with a triple, double and two RBI for Toronto. Travis Snider went 3-for-4 with an RBI. Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar each had two hits in the win.
Miguel Cabrera belted his 33rd home run for the Tigers, who lost for the third time in four games. Casper Wells went 2-for-2 with two RBI in defeat.
The Tigers have recorded a homer in 10 straight road games, and Cabrera increased his hitting streak to 11 games.
Alfredo Figaro (0-2), making his fourth career major league start, was reached for five runs, eight hits and two walks in five-plus innings.
"Today was a bullpen day," said Tigers reliever Brad Thomas, who pitched a scoreless inning. "You just go in there and try to eat up some innings and keep the team in the game."
Toronto has won four of the seven matchups with the Tigers this season after taking five of the eight matchups between the teams a year ago.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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