Football Betting

Cards KO 49ers; Leinart injures shoulder

Football Betting Lines

12/25/2006 - San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Leinart completed 9-of-13 passes for 162 yards and a score before spraining his left shoulder just before halftime, as the Arizona Cardinals went on to top San Francisco, 26-20, and knock the 49ers out of playoff contention.

Leinart got sacked by Roderick Green just under the two-minute mark of the second quarter and went to the locker room with a sprained left shoulder, but Kurt Warner came in to complete 9-of-13 passes for 105 yards in relief.

Edgerrin James rushed for 105 yards on 29 carries for the Cardinals (5-10), who have won three of their last four. Larry Fitzgerald caught four balls for 93 yards and a touchdown, while Anquan Boldin added 64 receiving yards on four catches.

Alex Smith completed 18-of-29 passes for 190 yards and an interception for the 49ers (6-9), who have dropped four of their last five. Frank Gore rushed for 51 yards on 11 attempts. Vernon Davis had four receptions for 91 yards, and Arnaz Battle posted 55 receiving yards on seven catches.

Because of San Francisco's loss, Seattle won the NFC West.

Gore scored on a one-yard run with five minutes left, but the Cardinals never gave the ball back after getting three more first downs.

San Francisco drew first blood on a 49-yard field goal from Joe Nedney with 10:19 remaining to cap a seven-play, 37-yard drive. Neil Rackers responded with a 25-yarder almost three minutes later to tie the score.

Marcel Shipp then ran it in from five yards out to cap an eight-play, 64-yard drive with a tick under a minute left to take a 10-3 Arizona lead into the second quarter.

Leinart got his passing game going and found Fitzgerald for a six-yard touchdown pass to cap a 10-play, 74-yard drive that chewed up over five minutes off the clock. Rackers followed with a 39-yarder about six minutes later, but Nedney converted a 32-yarder with just 22 seconds left for a 20-6 Arizona lead at halftime.

San Francisco punted on its first possession out of the locker room, but Troy Walters fumbled and Maurice Hicks recovered for the 49ers. They capitalized on the turnover when Gore scored from two yards out for a 20-13 deficit with 6:25 remaining in the third.

Rackers got credited with a 37-yard field goal three seconds into the fourth, but the ball actually hooked to the left of the upright, for a 23-13 Cardinals lead.

After Battle fumbled on San Fran's opening play of the drive, Robert Griffith recovered the ball. The Cardinals then needed just three plays to set up Rackers for a 32-yarder with 8:28 left.

The 49ers responded with a seven-play, all-passing drive to set up a one-yard touchdown run by Gore with five minutes left. However, Arizona picked up three first downs en route to running out the clock and the playoff hopes for the 49ers.

Game Notes

San Francisco has a 17-14 lead in its all-time series with the Cardinals, but has dropped four in a row to Arizona...The Cardinals opened University of Phoenix Stadium with a 34-27 win over San Francisco in Week 1, and also swept a pair of games against its NFC West rival last season. The Niners were 17-10 losers when Arizona visited Monster Park in Week 13...Prior to 2005, the 49ers had prevailed in eight of the previous nine head-to-head meetings. The Niners won by identical 31-28 marks, both in overtime, in a 2004 home-and- home...James became Arizona's first 1,000-yard rusher in eight years.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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